20 Gigaton is 50 btc

The solution to the global warming emergency is to radically reduce fossil fuel production by a long term production schedule modeled on the Bitcoin schedule.

That one started out with 50 bitcoins every 10 minutes, which is now down to 6.25 after the third halving in May of this year.

Since this is my proposal and my blog, I get to decide on the fossil fuel production schedule. I want to start from 20 gigatons of CO2, which would be the equivalent of the 50 bitcoins when the system started.

I will take a moment to explain that number. Then I will write a bit about how to distribute the production quota.

In 2018, global CO2 emissions were around 36.6 gigatons of CO2.

Around 55 percent of that was absorbed by carbon sinks like forests and oceans, leaving only about 45% to accumulate in the atmosphere and raise the record to 417 ppm in late May.

That means a little over 20 gigatons were absorbed by sinks. So if we start out with that number, we emit exactly as much as was absorbed in 2018. That in turn would mean avoiding to dig the hole deeper and increase the ppm value.

I also note that starting with 20 in 2020 is easy to remember, just like the three goals of the EU for 2020 (reduce CO2 emissions and energy use by 20 percent and get a 20 percent share for renewable).

Then it would be fun to do exactly the same as Bitcoin. Go to 10 gigatons 4 years later and keep going down by 50% every four years.

That would be a long term production schedule which would enable people to plan ahead.

And it would be the kind of radical change that would be required. Sorry, but the “solutions” tried until now just fall way short of having any chance of working.

This would also give a large boost to fossil fuel prices. Imagine a world where oil production is guaranteed to go down by half every four years. It does not take any financial genius to understand that the oil would be worth way more in such a world.

That of course leaves the small problem of who would be in charge of issuing and distributing the production quotas. If this problem is impossible to solve, I might as well be talking about creating a second moon for my new world (hello 1Q84).

I think that this problem can be solved by looking at what Bitcoin did. Just model the production quota issuing and distributing on Bitcoin.

Published by kflenz

Professor at Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo. Author of Lenz Blog (since 2003, lenzblog.com).

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